Post Mortem I - 121108

The Post Mortem

Part I

            Republicans were soundly defeated around the entire country on November 6th.  In my home state of Minnesota, Republicans lost control of both the House and the Senate.

            President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney offered the people a clear choice.  The President is an unabashed statist [1] who believes private markets should be strictly regulated and operate at the pleasure of the state.  Governor Romney is an advocate for capitalism, and believes in free markets that should be only minimally regulated to protect against abuses and market failure.  The American people chose Obama’s vision.

            Minnesotans replaced a Republican legislative majority with Democrats that will almost certainly go along with far left Governor Mark Dayton to raise taxes, expand regulation, and grow government dramatically.

            Applying Occam’s razor, there is only one logical conclusion to be drawn from the 2012 Election: Americans are very liberal, if not leftist.  But wait just a minute . . . the data do not support this “obvious” conclusion.

            The most recent Gallup Poll (2011) reports that 40% of Americans identify themselves as conservative, 35% moderate, and only 21% liberal.  And when it comes to pocket book issues, the results are even more dramatic.  Gallup reports that 46% of Americans identify themselves as economically conservative, as opposed to only 20% who identify themselves as economically liberal.  So given these data, how did a far left president get re-elected in the midst of economic malaise?  I believe three factors loom large, and will discuss them in three blog posts, this being the first.

I.  Smash Mouth Politics

            Liberals view politics as a street fight.  Conservatives tend to think of the political arena as the Oxford Union Debating Society.  As a result, Republicans set about winning arguments; Democrats set about winning elections.  Conservatives need to understand that in the short run there is no way to persuade people in large enough numbers to overcome busloads of union members, college students, and elderly Americans getting a free ride to the polls with instructions to vote Democrat.

In 2008 there was extraordinary turnout for then Senator Barack Obama, especially among young people.  This was attributed to the star power of Obama combined with the first opportunity to vote for a viable black presidential candidate.  Many election analysts such as Michael Barone, Karl Rove and Dick Morris believed this was a phenomenon that would not be repeated in 2012.  2008 was supposed to be an anomaly.  The prognosticators were dead wrong.  Although the euphoric excitement over President Obama seemed to wane during his four years in office, Obama’s voters were back out in droves (relative to Republicans) on November 6th.  How do you explain this?  Democrats seemed to lack passion, and passion is supposed to drive turnout.

Well, the fact is Democrats have learned how to drive turnout.  They are able to accurately ID hardcore Democrats and get them to the polls.  But even more importantly, they add millions of voters every election cycle by hauling folks out to vote who may or may not even care about political issues or candidates.  Many conservatives (including me) tend to view this tactic as tainted at best, and corruption of the process at worst.  But . . . if we want to win elections, we will have to get over it and do whatever is necessary to get people out, so long as we do not violate election laws.  Voting is a numbers game.  You have to get people out that will vote your way, whether or not they do so out of conviction.

If Republicans are going to win elections, we will have to indentify individuals and groups that will vote Republican, register them, and get them out to vote.  If I were a candidate for governor or president, I would immediately find someone to build a top-notch get-out-the-vote machine.  A Republican candidate may be correct on every issue, win every debate, and lead by five points in the polls, but if he/she doesn’t get people out on Election Day, a concession speech better be in the hopper.

(Part II of this series will publish tomorrow)

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[1] Statism - the principle or policy of concentrating extensive economic, political, and related controls in the state at the cost of individual liberty.