Post Mortem II - 121110

The Post Mortem

Part II

(See previous post for Part I)

            This is the second post in a three-part blog dealing with the 2012 Election results and what they tell us.  Part III will publish tomorrow or Monday.

I.                    I.   Smash Mouth Politics (See November 8 blog post)

           

II.  Failure to Persuade Minority Voters

            Everybody intuitively knows that the percentage of non-white voters in America is increasing.  But I don’t think most people are aware of the degree to which this demographic shift is impacting elections.  When Ronald Reagan won his first presidential election in 1980, non-Hispanic whites made up 89% of the electorate.  By 1988 that number dropped to 85%.  In 2008, Barack Obama and John McCain faced an electorate made up of just 74% whites.  And in 2012 only 72% of those who cast ballots were white.  Demographers predict this trend will continue.

In the 2012 Election President Obama got over 65% of the Hispanic vote, and over 90% percent of the black vote!  As the minority population grows, it will be impossible for Republicans to compensate by getting higher and higher percentages of the white vote.  Eventually the math becomes overwhelming.  Republicans must do better among minority voters.  But here is the key: we must not pander, give up on our principles, or adopt the destructive policies of the left.  Rather, we must win the argument with all voters.

            Liberal economic and social policies have decimated minorities, blacks in particular.  The welfare state has replaced fathers in the household, which has had a devastating impact, especially upon children of minority parents.  In 1960, 80% of black children lived in two-parent households.  Today less than 50% of black children live with both parents!  Why does that matter?  This quote from the National Poverty Center says it all: “Poverty rates are highest for families headed by single women, particularly if they are black or Hispanic. In 2010, 31.6 percent of households headed by single women were poor, while 15.8 percent of households headed by single men and 6.2 percent of married-couple households lived in poverty.” 

The welfare state subsidizes single parentage, out of wedlock pregnancy, and paternal irresponsibility.  And like it or not, the old adage is true: That which you tax you get less of; that which you subsidize you get more of.  Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society ramped up the “subsidy” for destructive behavior within the family, and we now have a lot more destructive behavior.

So, what are the implications?  The data clearly demonstrate that an increasing number of single parent households leads to higher rates of poverty, teen pregnancy among girls and juvenile delinquency among boys.  And all of these problems have hit minorities harder than whites.  Conservatives want to reduce government dependency.  Liberals want to double down.

            If conservatives are to win in the marketplace of ideas, we must find a way to convince ALL people that a job is preferable to welfare or unemployment benefits; independence is preferable to dependence upon government; the nuclear family matters; and, the American Dream is for everyone.  It will be an uphill battle.  It is much easier to make the liberal argument: “You have a need, here’s some money.”  But it is an argument we must win if we are to avoid becoming an entitlement society that crumbles under its own weight.  At the time of this writing the National Debt is $16,251,827,000,000 and counting.

(Check in for Part III of this series tomorrow or Monday)